Win the Wire: Week 3 Vincent Verhei 22 Sep 2020, 09:46 am

San Francisco 49ers RB Jerick McKinnon

Week 3 can be a hushed week after the initial rushed to the wire from the start of the season dies down. Not so much this year. Sunday may have specified the record for injuries to fantasy adepts with lineup staples such as Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Raheem Mostert suffering multiple-week to full-season injuries. That leaves a lot of work to be done in this week’s wire and may create a few sneaky impact adds-on for your illusion teams.

Rostered percentages are for ESPN/ Yahoo.

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

62 %/ 70%

Many fantasy participates were aligned with my Week 2 suggestion to prioritize Robinson over the field of waiver claims, but he remains available in about one-third of fantasy conferences. Don’t overlook him this week. Robinson offered a honourable encore of impres volume in Week 2 with 16 carries and three celebrations that he was transformed into 120 total grounds. Combined, his 36 signatures through the first two weeks are 13 th-most at its own position and have him on a full-season pace for 288, an RB1 workload. As if that weren’t fairly, Robinson has been efficient with 5.8 yards per touch, 12 th-best of the 51 backs with 15 or more strokes through 2 weeks. Try to evaluate your organization mates’ tendencies, but don’t be afraid to exhaust your FAB if you deem it will make that to land Robinson. He’s that kind of a fantasy difference-maker.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 100% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

28 %/ 39%

I offered a tepid affirmation of Kelley after his Week 1 recreation without a target. But after Sunday, I foresee I are likely to have underrated his receiving potential, and I’m not sure it matters as much as I thought it would with the Chargers’ commitment to the run and blocking performance.

To the onetime place, Kelley caught two guides for 49 grounds in Week 2. The first was a 35 -yard catch-and-run that was undefended, but Kelley presented an unexpected breakaway move to entwine through the second level.

And he followed that with a 14 -yard reception with fewer yards after the catch but showcasing a nice tracking and adjustment to a slightly off-target throw.

Kelley’s lone incompletion was on a screen that failed to develop. First-time rookie starter Justin Herbert intentionally shed the ball into the dirt.

To the latter point, the Chargers have so far established an improvement in their run-blocking from 4.37 adjusted strand gardens last season( 13 th) to 4.60 through 2 weeks this season( 10 th ). That plus a lead-in against the Chiefs’ relatively inadequate drain defense( -0. 7% in 2019, 26 th) started it possible to run 44 seasons against just 33 pass aims on Sunday. And I expect the Chargers to aim for that stage of imbalance when they can manage it in Herbert’s early job starts. That could create a rushing volume to support Kelley’s RB2 consideration even if he seldom experiences numerou targets. And he may well catch a few delivers per competition, specially if Herbert is under center and likely checking down to his backs more often than the veteran Taylor did in Week 1. Just 3.4% of Taylor’s aimed attempts in Week 1 targeted his running backs.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 70% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers

1 %/ 2%

Christian McCaffrey drafters have only ever had one anxiety with their top picking, and that gash fright has occurred in the form of an ankle gash that could sideline the Carolina star for several weeks. Most participates have never handcuffed McCaffrey, either because of his health to date or a lack of clarity on who his backup even is. But unexpectedly, it seems crystal-clear that Davis will be that player. In relief of McCaffrey on Sunday, Davis took a carry and, more important for fantasy, had eight catches for 74 yards. He toy 24 offensive clicks while the team’s other healthful back, Trenton Cannon, frisked on only special teams. And while Davis has a reputation as a receiving back, his 5-foot-9, 221 -pound size advocates he is built to withstand a short-term bell-cow volume of handles. You can comfortably plug-and-play Davis for McCaffrey, and you are eligible even enjoy RB1 digits in PPR formats when you do.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 51% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49 ers

19 %/ 23%

Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s ability to turn any player into a productive one for fantasy will be put to the test next week with Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Nick Bosa, and Solomon Thomas potentially missing the Monster recreation with their myriad injuries. For McKinnon, the two to monitor will be Mostert and Coleman. The onetime dislocated his MCL, serious injuries that our Andrew Potter’s research suggests will likely cost him at least two weeks. Meanwhile, Coleman sprained his knee and could miss multiple weeks, as well.

McKinnon may be third string with everyone health, but his 4.35 s 40 time indicates that he is chipped from the same cloth as the journeyman-turned-star Mostert. And my own investigate suggests that it isn’t coincidence that fast participates such as Mostert can crack long touchdown runs such as the two he once has in as many weeks. McKinnon immediately followed suit with a 55 -yarder on one of his just three impress in succor on Sunday. He should slot in near where Mostert often grades as an RB2 if Mostert and Coleman both miss time.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 40% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers

78 %/ 62%

Anderson turned in an exceptional team debut with 114 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but his( eight ), D.J. Moore’s( nine ), and Curtis Samuel’s( eight) target totals recommends that the Panthers could have too strewed a pas onrush for he or Samuel to achieve WR3 status. One week last-minute, I have not yet been concerns. Anderson was a touchdown away of a full encore conduct with nine catches and 109 grounds in Week 2. And while he and Moore both outperformed their Week 1 target shares, Samuel came back to precisely two targets. Now through 2 weeks, Anderson is restrained for 10 th among all receivers with 18 targets and top-2 0 with a 24.3% target share. On a team looking to pass with brand-new offensive coordinator Joe Brady and likely having to pass with a protection that will land them in a lot of second-half insufficiencies, Anderson is a WR3 with upside to be even better.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 20% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

79 %/ 76%

The Gibson hive that drafted him as a sleeper in August on the strength of his greater-than-5 0% college receiving rate may have been turned off by Peyton Barber’s two-touchdown performance in Week 1. But now that I’ve seen the team for 2 weeks, I foresee I have a read on how they will use their backs. When confined or earning, Barber contributes their trio of backs with 10 carries versus only four for Gibson and one for J.D. McKissic. But when trailing, Gibson has a clear advantage with 18 carries versus 10 for McKissic and really eight for Barber. Those splits make sense for their skills and abilities, with Gibson and McKissic more versatile as receiving menaces and Barber the biggest at 5-foot-11 and 225 pounds. But they shouldn’t lead to a perfectly given workload. Despite their Week 1 shock of the Eagles, Washington remains a bottom-two team in DAVE. They will likely trail more than they result this season, and Gibson’s workload will likely expand across sport moods as he originates more comfy at this new level of competition.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 16% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams

45 %/ 31%

It’s difficult to disentangle the Rams’ aimed reliance on Darrell Henderson as part of a three-back committee from the seemingly minor injuries Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown suffered against the Eagles on Sunday. But even if Akers and Brown can return to the field in Week 3, it may be worth adding Henderson to your fantasize terraces as well. The majority of his 121 gardens on Sunday came from a few big-hearted toys. He took one carry up the midriff for 40 yards.

And another for 11 yards.

Those breakaway carries likely say more about the Rams’ run-blocking than Henderson’s skill set. But Henderson should continue to benefit from an offensive wire that at least so far this season has returned back from 4.27 adjusted cable gardens last-place season( 19 th) to 4.89 this season( sixth ). Meanwhile, Henderson is likely the best receiving alternative of the Rams’ three backs, something he pictured with a clever spinning catch on a 28 -yard wheel route that roughly been successful in a touchdown.

Overall, Henderson is averaging 7.5 gardens per touch this season, the second-highest rate among the 51 backs with 15 or more impress. With that rank of efficiency, he could overcome a age share to become a flex option in PPR leagues.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 15% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Dion Lewis, RB, New York Giants

1 %/ 5%

With Saquon Barkley confirmed to miss the rest of the season with a rush ACL, there is no mystery of which back will be in the New York spotlight. Lewis played 88% of the Giants’ offensive snaps on Sunday. And after playing just three clicks the week before, Wayne Gallman was a health inactive in Week 2. The greater question is how effective Lewis can be in fantasy the rest of the course. The Heavyweight have put up a dire 1.61 adjusted direction grounds through the first 2 weeks, more than a yard and a half start of the rest of the NFL. And while that frequency assuredly shows the greatnes of the run defenses of their first two opposings — the Steelers( who cut YPA by 14%, fifth-most) and Bears( 7 %, seventh-most) — things don’t improve dramatically over the next two months with matchups against the 49 ers( 1 %, 17 th-most ), Rams( 2 %, 16 th-most ), Cowboys( 5 %, 11 th-most ), Buccaneers( 31%, most ), and Eagles( 18%, third-most) twice. Lewis will likely land in the flex compas most weeks rather than the top five that Barkley lived in. And that is even before one considers the opportunities that the Heavyweight could compute a bigger back to take over the capability operates that Lewis( 5-foot-8 and 195 pounds) and Gallman( 6-foot-0 and 210 pounds) may not be suited to handle.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 12% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Devonta Freeman, RB, Free Agent

8 %/ 13%

If you plan to bid a non-trivial amount of FAB on Lewis, I recommend you handcuff him with a similar entreat on Freeman. Frankly, I’d spend more on Freeman if I knew “hes been” signing, but you maybe can add him inexpensively if the Monster signal him after the Week 3 waiver deadline.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 11% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

35 %/ 46%

Tannehill had numerous outlier statistics in 2019 that drawn attention to likely regression, such as A.J. Brown’s historic rate of grounds after the catch and the team’s incredible 11.3 -yard average on play-action legislates based on Sports Info Solutions charting. But Tannehill’s fantasy success still necessitates that he at least be on benches to start this season. He threw four touchdowns against the Jaguars on Sunday, and that isn’t more different from what he did down the elongate last year. From Week 7 when he became the Titans starter on, he has averaged 22.2 fiction levels per sport. That’s the second-most at the position behind exclusively Lamar Jackson( 27.9 ). I still might analyse him as a matchup play, but his upside is demonstrably immense.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 11% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

42 %/ 36%

Sammy Watkins made a helmet-to-helmet hit that slapped him out of the Chiefs-Chargers game on Sunday. It’s too early to know whether he will clear protocol for Week 3, but last year taught us that even temporary Honchoes ascensions furnish a great deal of fantasy potential. Hardman and Demarcus Robinson are both options, but I’ll side with Hardman as the better fantasy choice. He legislated Robinson with a 65% versus 62% offensive sound share in Week 2, and his status a second-year player intimates he would be the bigger home run swing if Watkins dissolved up missing various weeks.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 10% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Russell Gage, WR, Atlanta Falcons

20 %/ 22%

Austin Hooper may have absorbed most of the Falcons’ tight end targets in 2019, but the team had a middling 65% charge of three of more receivers on the field. Even as much as Matt Ryan hurls the lump, that wasn’t a recipe for the slit receiver Gage’s fantasy success. Well, that does not seem to be the case anymore in 2020. Gage owes some ascribe for his top-1 0 wide receiver total of 21 targets through two weeks to the Falcons’ extreme pass ratio, but he also has a top-2 0 23.9% target share at the position. That proportion would be necessary to 12 th among wide receivers in 2019. And Gage even has a top-1 0 total of 1.12 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns. The Falcons definitely sounds like the rare unit that can support three receivers in fantasy, so don’t overlook Gage’s potential because of his teammates.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 8% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins

13 %/ 15%

Gaskin has yet to escape the three-headed running back monster the Dolphins are deploying this season. He contributed the team with 13 strokes in Week 2, but Matt Breida took eight and Jordan Howard took five. That workload split will likely prevent Gaskin from becoming fantasy-relevant in the short term. But long term, his superior efficiency could skew the share to elevate him to flex or even RB2 status. Helped by a top-five-among-backs total of 11 targets, Gaskin is averaging 5.7 yards per touch, tied for 13 th-best of the 51 backs with 15 or more impress this season. That bests Breida( 4.7) by a ground and Howard( 0.8) by practically 5 grounds. The latter isn’t a fair comparison since Howard has received the bulk of his touches come in short-yardage situations, but that doesn’t certainly matter for fantasy actors. Grounds are yards, and grounds are fantasy points.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 8% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans

39 %/ 68%

A two-touchdown week ever catches your eye at close-fisted aspiration, where character fantasize alternatives rapidly become hard to come by after the elite tier of musicians such as Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. But Smith always had potential as a touchdown-scorer. Scouts saw the 248 -pound Smith as a Delanie Walker type before the Titans even drafted him as Walker’s eventual replacement. And now two weeks into his fourth season, Smith seems to be approaching Walker’s former TE1 role. At his crest from 2015 to 2017, Walker shored between a 20.8% and 24.5% target share every season. And so far this year, Smith is at 18.8%, 10 th-highest of all tighten ends.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 5% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins

48 %/ 67%

I wasn’t expecting a fast start to Gesicki’s 2020 season returned Ryan Fitzpatrick’s historic reliance on wide receivers over tight expirations. But after an eight-catch, 130 -yard, one-touchdown Week 2 on 11 targets that preceded the team, Gesicki is up to a 21.2% target share that is sixth among all tighten aims this season. Meanwhile, he has been a red area menace with 1.58 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns, second-most at its own position and onward even of Tyler Higbee( 1.23) who scored three times on Sunday. With better touchdown luck, Gesicki could have the seem of a top-1 0 close-fisted demise. Take advantage of his relative obscurity now while his market price is a bit depressed.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 3% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

N’Keal Harry, WR, New England Patriots

40 %/ 27%

New quarterback Cam Newton has controlled the team’s touchdown scoring through their first two weeks, but that may be good news for fantasy musicians looking to add N’Keal Harry, a second-year receiver positioned for a breakout, for a rebate. The Patriots have overhauled their pique to take advantage of Newton’s rushing ability, but that run-leaning has not propagandized Harry out of the top 10 wide receivers with 18 targets. His 29.0% target share is sixth at the position this season and ought to have been tied him for second in 2019 with DeAndre Hopkins. Newton’s 397 -yard passing performance in Seattle in Week 2 had indicated that the Patriots can propel when the matchup calls for it. At the least, that should shape Harry a flex alternative when the team faces tone opponents.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 2% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

19 %/ 32%

I may have spend too much time this preseason extolling Teddy Bridgewater’s possible fantasy benefits from a horrendous Panthers defense and not enough do the same for his cat-team counterpart Minshew in Jacksonville. After an unpredictable frontrunner carry-on against the Colts in Week 1, the Jaguars fell behind the Titans on Sunday and shifted to the pass. Minshew intent up top-five at the position with 45 struggles in Week 2, and he profited on them with 339 yards and three touchdowns. Visually, Minshew seems to have improved his accuracy from his rookie season and to be enjoying better receiver play with the additives of rookie wideout Laviska Shenault and receiving back Chris Thompson. After a 5.2% shortfall in 2019 that was the second-biggest of regular starters, Minshew this year is completing 9.3% more of his elapses than expected according to Next Gen Stats. That’s the third-highest surplus at its own position. Even a regressed surplus would spawn Minshew a irreplaceable fiction option when coupled with his likely passing volume and scrambling. Last-place year, he averaged 24 hastening yards per activity, fifth-most of the 36 quarterbacks who playing in eight or more games.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 1% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Golden Tate, WR, New York Giants

58 %/ 36%

Barkley’s injury was the team’s most important and longest live from Week 2, but No. 1 receiver — at least by target share — Sterling Shepard also suffered a turf toe injury and is poised to miss several weeks. Tate made 91% of his targets from the slot last-place season, so he isn’t a direct capacity substitution for Shepard. But Tate did experience considerably better product with 6.0 catches for 81 yards per recreation between Weeks 6 and 10 last season with Shepard sidelined by a concussion versus 3.2 and 52 with Shepard sharing the field from Weeks 12 to 17.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 1% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team

11 %/ 32%

Thomas didn’t match my performance expectations in Week 2 against a Cardinal squad that was the No. 1 increaser of tighten boundary consummation percentage, yards per target, and touchdowns per target last season. But more important for his future fantasy ethic, “hes seen” another nine targets. That was second on the team on Sunday and four more than the No. 3 receiver, and it boosts him to a 27.0% target share through two weeks that is second-most among all close-fisted demises. Thomas hasn’t converted that usage into a ton of gardens still further, but he has teased touchdown upside with 1.39 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns, third-most at the position.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 1% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

45 %/ 71%

Burrow’s totals from Thursday evening of 316 grounds and three touchdowns inspect a bit more impressive when you inspect past his attempt total of 61 moves. The Bengals are bad, but they aren’t 61 -passes-per-week bad. Still, Burrow has passed the eye test. He looks cozy in the pocket despite picturing heavy push behind what is likely a inadequate offense cable (8. 2% adjusted bag proportion ). Unlike the team’s less knowledge options from 2019, Burrow seems to have found the necessary balance of throwing the occasional shot downfield but mainly get rid of the projectile soon. His 8.0 -yard average depth of target is 15th-highest of the 34 quarterbacks with 20 or more tries, and his 2.64 s median time to throw would have been sixth-fastest at the position in 2019 according to Next Gen Stats.

Recommended FAB bid (% of peak ): 1% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Drew Sample, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

0 %/ 1%

I didn’t realize Bengals tight tip C.J. Uzomah was a must-have fantasy player before he tore his Achilles on Thursday evening. But if his six-catch second half was any indication, second-year backup Sample should do a fair impression. He clearly has the TE1 job. For the full recreation, Sample frisked 54 offensive snaps compared to just seven for Cethan Carter. And with Burrow, that Bengals TE1 role has pestered some miraculous fantasy capability. Combined, Uzomah and Sample have 21 targets through the first 2 weeks, which are restrained for the second-most among tight death cells in football. And they lead its own position with 1.86 opportunity-adjusted touchdowns, hinting even greater touchdown upside than they’ve shown so far this season.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 1% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

15 %/ 15%

With top potentials such as Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb landing on squads with established No. 1 receivers, the 2020 rookie receiver class has a volume problem. That opens the door for some less heralded potentials to enjoy the best rookie seasons. And now that Parris Campbell has suffered a PCL injury that knocks him out indefinitely, Pittman may end up leading his peers in targets this season. He had just six on Sunday, but that did conduct the Colts. More important from a forecasting perspective, Pittman headed the team’s receivers by playing 92% of the team’s offensive snaps. That bested Zach Pascal at 81% and readily transcended inferred No. 1 receiver T.Y. Hilton at 58%.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 1% Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mo Alie-Cox, TE, Indianapolis Colts

1 %/ 1%

Already down Eric Ebron from Frank Reich’s 2019 crew that finished top-1 0 with a 34% reliance on two-tight end patterns, the Colts lost Jack Doyle for Sunday’s game against the Vikings and had to rely on Mo Alie-Cox. Even as an unquestioned temporary No. 1 tighten purpose, I didn’t have high expectations. Last season, the Vikings had the stingiest tight discontinue justification in football, accommodating the position to a -4 6.4% DVOA. But Alie-Cox handed with 111 gardens on time six targets. And as JJ Zachariason pointed out, it’s never a bad mind to bet on an athletic close-fisted tip such as Alie-Cox, a former college basketball participate for VCU.

Career recreations with 5 or more targets: Jack Doyle – 30 Mo Alie-Cox – 1

Career recreations with 100 or more receiving grounds: Jack Doyle – 1 Mo Alie-Cox – 1

— JJ Zachariason (@ LateRoundQB) September 21, 2020

That said, I wasn’t overly astonished by what I pictured from the athletic tight point. His day started with a descent pass that hit him in the dresser and avoided to become a Philip Rivers red region interception.

And while he rebounded to produce a number of large-scale represents, most of those were generally uncontested by the Vikings defense. For speciman, Alie-Cox had only daylight in front of him on this 16 -yard catch-and-run.

And either linebacker Eric Kendricks or a teammate forgot to cover him on the same route twice. The first went for 33 yards.

And the second gained 21 yards.

The tight end friendliness of the Colts offense procreates Alie-Cox a waiver candidate even if Doyle can make it back immediately. But I’ll want to see more evidence of good play before I spend up for Alie-Cox in FAB.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum ): 1% Should “youre using” your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players on More Than 80% of Rosters to Add

James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers( 96%/ 98%) Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams( 92%/ 96%) Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots (8 8 %/ 90%) Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( 88% /8 6 %) D’Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions ( 86% /8 8 %) Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos ( 86% /8 5 %) Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (8 2 %/ 86%) CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys ( 80% /8 8 %) Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles( 76% /8 4 %) John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills( 75% /8 3 %) Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons( 74% /8 6 %)

Players on More Than 20% of Rosters You Can Drop

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants( 100%/ 96%) Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos( 96% /8 3 %) Parris Campbell, WR, Indianapolis Colts( 55%/ 44%) Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49 ers( 39%/ 48%) Breshad Perriman, WR, New York Aircraft( 37%/ 14%) Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts( 21%/ 17%) Blake Jarwin, TE, Dallas Cowboys( 5 %/ 24%)

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