OFI Week 11: Bad Matchups and Good Offenses Parker Fleming 16 Nov 2020, 02:20 pm
You might call it the week of cancellations — 15 college football games were cancelled or deferred due to virus-related concerns. Once again, this writer would like to emphasize that football is important, and he is glad that teams are taking the measures they feel best prioritize the health and safety of their student-athletes and coaches as they try to play.
No. 6 Florida, No. 8 Notre Dame, and No. 9 Oregon were the only top-1 0 teams to see action this week; “theres not” a single matchup of AP-ranked teams in Week 11. Despite a thinner slate, there was still plenty to learn — the piques for Notre Dame and Florida are rounding into word, Oregon gapes to be the class of the Pac-1 2, and somehow Northwestern bided unbeaten. Let’s dive into the numbers from the weekend.
Florida hosted a spry No. 50 Arkansas Saturday night, taking care of business against a cross-division adversary in a 63 -3 5 shootout. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman was unavailable for the game, as was Florida tight end Kyle Pitts. Both squads mitigated their needs well; Florida quarterback Kyle Trask propelled for six touchdowns on 29 pass, discovering Trevon Grimes and Xzavier Henderson for 171 gardens on nine acknowledgments. Trask has now ended 70.1% of his extends on the season, averaging 14.7 gardens per ending; he’s an atypical Dan Mullen quarterback, with effectively zero rushing facet, but his accuracy and downfield threat are more than enough to justify Florida’s reputation as a national contender. The Gators offense gained 75% of available grounds, lengthening drives by altering on 10 of 14 third- and fourth-down aims. Florida was successful on 53% of participates and 58% of their legislates, and they outshone Arkansas by +0.167 EPA/ toy margin. If you were going to highlight a weakness in Florida’s armor, you might point out that Kendal Briles’ offense composed 35 targets in 12 drives, 2.91 targets per drive, and allowed long scurries of 81 and legislates of 82 and 48. Those explosive play-acts are certainly random to a certain extent, but still worrisome.
Arkansas, behind the duo of Trelon Smith and Rakeem Boyd, averaged 8.7 gardens per scoot, a positive +0.520 EPA/ move, and quarterback Felipe Franks connected on 15 of his 19 pass( 78.9%) for +0.082 EPA/ pass. The Razorbacks fall to 3-4 on the season, clearly outclassed by the top of the SEC, but for a program that had prevailed only five activities against FBS competition in the previous three seasons, there’s plenty to be excited about for Pittman in Fayetteville. For one, the Razorbacks have composed 30 pitches against SEC competition three times this season — they failed to reach 30 qualities in a single 2019 seminar play. The Gators, meanwhile, are conducting the SEC East and seemed destined for a matchup with Alabama for a discern in the playoff. They have four games remaining, and outside of a touchy Kentucky defense, face few challenges: at Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, and then hosting rival LSU. The next couple of weeks for Florida will involve get healthful, scouting Alabama’s offense, and doing Trask’s Heisman case.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat No. 55 Boston College 45 -3 1, and the story yet again was Ian Book. The Notre Dame senior quarterback , not exactly known for his upper-clas play in the past, is becoming elite before our very eyes. Book ended 74% of pass, averaging 14.2 yards per finish, and lent 10 carries for 85 gardens and a touchdown as well. He observed Avery Davis for two deep affects, and receivers Ben Skowronek and Javon McKinley mixed for 111 grounds on 10 receptions, with Skowronek plucking down all three Book touchdowns. The pique was successful on 58.4% of plays in the game, even as they hastened on 64% of early downs after amassing a large lead. The Irish averaged +0.145 EPA/ play on the day, altering 50% of their third-down attempts, diversifying drives six experiences. The defense let Phil Jurkovec and the Eagles to put up some points. The Irish gave up three turnovers, but BC simply benefited to the tune of three points; the rest of their 31 points came on full battlefield drives. Jurkovec accomplished merely 18 of 40 delivers, but the team averaged +0.037 EPA/ pass on the day. Boston College, at 5-4, has already beat their convention acquire total from last year and has two winnable tournaments left in Lousiville and Virginia. The Eagles could be looking at a step-forward year with some potential for a very successful 2021. The Irish continue their death march to the rematch with Clemson, and the more they can get Book right, the better shot Brian Kelly’s team will have to steal a second win from the Tigers and sneak into the layoff.
In the Pac-1 2, No. 11 Oregon turned the ball over three times in the first 16 minutes of the game against No. 37 Washington State, delving a 19 -7 fault. After that, Oregon clanged off a 36 -1 0 run to acquire video games 43 -2 9. In the second half, Oregon outgained Washington State 10.4 to 6.5 grounds per participate, averaging 5.6 moments per drive( 6.2 moments per drive if you credit a missed field goal) and supporting Washington State to 2.0 qualities per drive. There were some concerns about Oregon’s offense, what with turnover and opt-outs this season, but through two sports, the Ducks are averaging +0.262 EPA/ performance, a 51.5% success rate, and 7.6 yards per play on early downs. Oregon quarterback Tyler Shorugh accomplished 70% of his moves, propelling for four touchdowns; he found Jaylon Redd and Travis Dye seven seasons for 186 grounds and two touchdowns, averaging +0.560 EPA/ pass. Washington State’s Jayden de Laura had a productive daytime, hurling for 321 gardens. Receiver Reanard Bell caught 10 of his surpass for 158 yards and Travell Harris caught nine for 94 — those two were responsible for 78.5% of the Cougars’ receiving yards on the day. Washington State was relatively successful — 42.4% success rates overall and 47.5% on the pass — but they raced for precisely 4.63 grounds per play on the day, a 34.6% success rates, and averaged merely +0.076 EPA, indicating very low explosiveness against Oregon’s defense. The Ducks should cruise past UCLA, Oregon State, and Cal before facing Washington in the second week of December. That matchup should have playoff suggests , not just Pac-1 2 championship deductions — Oregon’s going to be pulped to accrue as countless vogue places as they can in their six-game regular season.
It’s time to talk about 4-0 Northwestern. Ranked merely 29 th in F +, the Wildcats have quite literally snuck into the driver’s seat of the Big Ten West. This week, they beat No. 41 Purdue 27 -2 0 despite averaging 3.8 grounds per play on early downs and exactly 1.88 grounds per rushed, a 27.5% early-down success rate. Northwestern quarterback Peyton Ramsey averaged simply 9.2 gardens per consummation, and Northwestern’s longest play was 18 grounds. A Purdue fumble set up the fateful compose, sacrificing Northwestern an 18 -yard field to go up 24 -1 0. Aside from that, Northwestern in the second half punted three times and knocked a field goal on four “full field” drives, averaging merely 3.3 grounds per play. The Wildcat braced Purdue to a 25% success rates, -0. 263 EPA/ continue. The Boilermakers started on their own 31 -yard line, on average, yet gained simply 35% of accessible gardens on the working day and altered really six of 20 third- and fourth-down aims. Northwestern seems to be testing the limits of “suffocating defense and fairly offense to survive” in college football; they are allowing 1.2 tops per drive to dissidents and have 10 turnovers in their four tournaments. The Wildcats have a date with Wisconsin this coming weekend, and then play the down slate of the Big Ten with matchups against Michigan State, Minnesota, and Illinois; a one-loss or even undefeated season is somehow very much in play.
Across the Nation:
Speaking of Wisconsin, the No. 4 Badgers chagrined No. 17 Michigan, winning 49 -1 1. The defense viewed Michigan to a 24% success rates, exactly 2.5 gardens per early down, and merely 3-of-12 on third- and fourth-down shifts. The Badgers hastened for 341 gardens to run the game out after taking a 21 -0 induce in a six-drive sequence where Michigan hurl two interceptions and punted while Wisconsin orchestrated three touchdowns.
No. 25 Indiana handled No. 64 Michigan State 24 -0 on the back of Michael Penix’s 320 -yard passing performance. Ty Fryfogle had 200 gardens on 11 acknowledgments for the Hoosiers, and the justification propped Michigan State to -0. 618 EPA/ participate, thanks in sizable component to three Spartans interceptions. It’s hard to say who had a worse game, but it certainly was a bad weekend in Michigan. Western and Central both won, though!
It’s hard to say whether No. 27 USC is actually a good football unit. For the second straight week, the Trojans fought, this time sneaking past No. 91 Arizona 34 -3 0. The Trojans toy the Wildcat effectively evenly( an EPA margin of really +0.030) and allowed 2.75 moments per drive.
No. 21 Miami might be in the same boat; although they sit at 6-1 after a 25 -2 4 win over No. 26 Virginia Tech, their last three wins have been one-score, nerve-wracking things. D’Eriq King averaged 10.6 grounds per attainment, but Miami’s explosive offense was nowhere to be found — their longest represent was a 36 -yard Mark Pope catch, and the Canes averaged exactly +0.019 EPA/ play-act.
No. 11 Cincinnati blew past No. 110 East Carolina 55 -1 7 as Desmond Ridder accounted for four touchdowns and the Bearcats offense averaged 8.7 grounds per play on early downs, while the justification contained the Plagiarist to a 37% success rate and -0. 376 EPA/ continue.
No. 31 Marshall reminded unbeaten, scoring 21 items in the second half of the year to beat No. 116 Middle Tennessee 42 -1 4 behind Willie Johnson’s 137 receiving gardens and two touchdowns. The Thundering Herd have some caveats due to strength of schedule, but with Charlotte, Rice, and FIU left to play, gape poised for their first unbeaten season since 1999.
These musicians included the most value to their crews in Week 11 😛 TAGEND
Matt Corral, Ole Miss QB: +26.3 Total EPA
Elijah Moore, Ole Miss WR: +22.2 Total EPA
Corral ascertained Moore 13 hours for 225 gardens and two touchdowns, including a 91 -yard pass that persuasion Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin to propel his clipboard 30 gardens in the air in gala. Corral hurled for 513 grounds and four touchdowns, averaging 18.3 grounds per period in a 59 -4 2 win over South Carolina.
Kyle Trask, Florida QB: +29.5 Total EPA
Trask was excellent again, this time in a struggle against his former teammate Felipe Franks. Trask threw for six touchdowns and exclusively six incompletions on the day. He averaged 15.5 gardens per completion and ended 79.3% of his pass.
Sam Howell, North Carolina QB: +27.1 Total EPA
Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati QB: +27.1 Total EPA
Two quarterbacks of very different stripes are confined this week. Howell induced some fireworks against Wake Forest, shedding for six touchdowns and 550 yards. Ridder cured Cincinnati cruise past East Carolina: he was responsible for 402 total grounds and four touchdowns on the day.
Kevin Harris, South Carolina RB: +21.3 Total EPA
Harris gained 243 yards on 25 suggestions Saturday, including five touchdowns. That’s an average of 9.42 gardens per carry, but it wasn’t driven by outliers: his long was 46 yards, and outside of that, he averaged an nonsensical 8.2 yards per carry.
Note: All positions was related to F +, a combination of Brian Fremeau’s drive-based FEI ratings with Bill Connelly’s play-level SP+ ratings. Advanced Stats and leaderboards can be found at cfb-graphs.com. Follow Parker on Twitter: @statsowar.
Read more: footballoutsiders.com